Contrasting Influences of Seasonal and Intra-Seasonal Hydroclimatic Variabilities on the Irrigated Rice Paddies of Northern Peninsular Malaysia for Weather Index Insurance Design

Good index selection is key to minimising basis risk in weather insurance design. However, interannual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal hydroclimatic variabilities pose challenges identifying robust proxies for crop losses. In this study, we systematically investigated 574 indices their relationships with yield Malaysia’s irrigated double planting system, using the Muda rice granary as a case study. The responses of seasonal yields monthly averages extreme rainfall, temperature, streamflow statistics from 16 years’ observations were examined by correlation analysis linear regression. We found that minimum temperature during flowering maturity phase governed drier off-season (season 1, March July, Pearson correlation, r = +0.87; coefficient determination, R2 74%). contrast, average regulated main season 2, September January, +0.82, 67%). During respective periods, these at lowest seasons. Based on findings, recommend temperature- water-supply-based foundations developing contracts system northern Peninsular Malaysia.